ACKER MARKET INSIGHTS BURGUNDY 2023

NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 28, 2023

INTRODUCTION

The wines of Burgundy have long been the cornerstone in collectors’ cellars. Now more than ever they are key components of savvy and dynamic investment portfolios - and with good reason. Year after year, Burgundy consistently earns the highest price tags for rare and newly released vintages. As the greatest global celebration of Burgundy approaches, La Paulée is driving collectors in droves to celebrate the labors of the master wine producers from the region.

In advance of what will be the biggest Burgundy Auction in La Paulée history, we thought it appropriate to provide a special Acker Markets piece: Burgundy Insights. It provides similar analysis to our historical quarterly pieces but is focused specifically on Burgundy including our forecast for wine prices.

BURGUNDY AS AN ASSET CLASS

Over the past two decades, fine and rare wine, Burgundy in particular, has been one of the best performing asset classes in the world. The wines have demonstrated a staggering 439% return compared to equities markets, outdoing even the high-growth, technology-dominated Nasdaq 379%, and the S&P 500’s 260% returns since 2007.

Observing Burgundy and its performance against the Nasdaq provides interesting insights on correlation, volatility, and trends. From the peak in prices in March 2022, the Nasdaq gave up all its gains from the past two years, while Burgundy wines kept a large portion of its own gains, demonstrating less downsize volatility.

Burgundy consistently tops and bottoms with a delay of about 2-3 months from the big moves in the equity markets, which bottomed approximately 2-3 months ago; a technical reason we believe prices in Burgundy are starting to rise again. The Burgundy wine index has also held its long term trend lines, another bullish technical argument.

THE SECONDARY MARKET

Secondary market dynamics in 2022 also instill confidence the recent lows have been put in. With the bullish run of the past few years, wine trade buyers constantly loaded up on inventory to outpace demand. As demand started to wane in Q2 of 2022, wine trade spent much of the second half of the year selling off excess inventory and rebalancing their portfolios, putting pressure on prices. In 2023, demand has come back strongly since Hong Kong and China finally reopened earlier this year. Market participants have had to adjust to the global increase in demand, which bodes extremely well for market resilience.

VOLATILITY AT THE HIGH END OF BURGUNDY

Over the past few years the average dollar price at the highest echelon of Burgundy has seen exponential growth, and from its peak in March of 2022, the greatest downside volatility. The key reason is the amount of bidders of wines 10K+ per bottle are less than the overall Burgundy wine market. When Asia-Pacific demand waned in the second half of 2022, these wines saw the largest retracements and affected wine indices the most due to their weighting. The top end wines of Leroy and DRC were prime examples. We have already experienced the stabilization of these top-priced wines, and have observed them start to rise again in our January and February auctions, as well as in retail. This gives us additional confidence in the positive trends in the Burgundy market.

While the technical aspects of the charts and the resurgence in demand point toward a rise for the values of Burgundy wines, there is one major compelling factor which will contribute to Burgundy’s growth and continued outperformance over other asset classes: climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE

The impact that climate change will have on the future prices of outstanding vintages cannot be overstated. Known for cooler climate viticulture particularly ideal for Pinot Noir, rising atmospheric temperatures threaten growing conditions. Smart and agile winemakers will adapt and rise to the challenge; however extreme weather events related to climate change including spikes in temperature, flash floods, frost, and hail will continue to impact harvest-timing and ripeness, harvest yields, and ultimately the quality of what remains to bottle.

As winemakers react and adjust to increasing environmental challenges, the value of outstanding vintages predating the severest impacts of climate change will only rise, compounded by scarcity over time as prized bottles are consumed. The unpredictability of future supply stands to drive prices ever upward, particularly for the most age-worthy vintages.

The wines of Burgundy have been the top region in price performance over time. The below chart shows the relative performance of Burgundy versus other top wine regions of the world. We then dive into the best of the best of Burgundy, looking at the best performers over the past 5 years, including which vintages showed the strongest performance.

PRODUCER DEMAND

A look at the rankings of the top producers by dollar value since 2020 shows the demand for the best Burgundy wine brands at auction. Prices for the top producers have grown to triple-digit highs over the past five years in some cases. In the past year, Burgundy brands that have increased in value include many top white wine producers accounting for half the list.

Top Burgundy Producers By Dollar Value

(As of 2020)

TOP BURGUNDY PRODUCER PERFORMANCE

(Past 5 Years)

PRODUCER DEMAND

Looking at the relative performance of vintages, we see 2010 continues to show the most significant strength across Red Burgundy. Some of the retracements of the top vintages are reflective of the volatility at the very high price point we discussed, as can be seen with the 1990 vintage. Worthy of note is that many of the top vintages have started to rise in price already, a trend expected to continue in 2023.

BEST VINTAGE PERFORMERS

(Past 5 Years Red Burgundy)

BEST OF THE BEST

(Past 5 Years Overall)

Looking at the relative performance of vintages, we see 2010 continues to show the most significant strength across Red Burgundy. Some of the retracements of the top vintages are reflective of the volatility at the very high price point we discussed, as can be seen with the 1990 vintage. Worthy of note is that many of the top vintages have started to rise in price already, a trend expected to continue in 2023.

*Historic Indices reflect the most traded wines from a given producer before the year 2000. 2000s Indices comprise the most traded wines from a given producer between the year 2000 and 2020. Producer Indices combine the data of the “Historic” and “2000s” indices to offer a composite view of a selection of the most traded wines from a given producer over the span of Acker Auction’s database (beginning around 2002). The selection of wines and index’s pricing scale are static as of the index’s creation date.

SUMMARY

Fine and rare wine, and Burgundy wines in particular, will continue to be one of the top-performing asset classes in the world. The retracement off the peak in prices of March of 2022 has ended, and the already rising prices from the beginning of 2023 are predicted to continue. As climate change continues to alter production levels and diminish supply within the region, the supply and demand imbalance in top fine and rare Burgundy will only become more pronounced, with historically outstanding vintages becoming all the more valuable as scarcity and demand continue to drive prices upward. As we approach Acker’s La Paulée Auction on March 2-3, the largest La Paulée Burgundy wine auction in history, the timing for our clients could not be better as we believe the auction represents a unique opportunity to take advantage of the restart of the upward trend of Burgundy wine prices.

Irv Goldman - Acker CEO. man with white hair beard and glasses

IRVIN GOLDMAN

Chief Executive Officer

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